[market changes] supply and demand have reversed. Iron ore opened down 2%.

SMM6 March 29: the first day after the festival, the black department was completely occupied in the morning trading. As of press time, iron ore was at 749.5 yuan / ton, down 2.03%; thread at 3573 yuan / ton, down 1.19%; hot coil at 3574 yuan / ton, down 0.89%.

There was an overall increase in shipments last week, and there was a stock accumulation in the port inventory. As of the 28th, the inventory of 35 ports tracked by SMM totaled 100.32 million tons, an increase of 980000 tons over the previous week and a decrease of 6.36 million tons from the same period last year. In the long run, Vale's powder output in the first quarter was 59.6 million tons, and if the annual production target of 310 million tons is to be achieved, at least 250 million tons must be achieved in the second to fourth quarters, an increase of about 20 million tons over the same period last year.

In addition, downstream steel demand is also dragged down by weather factors. Affected by the continuous rain in many places in the south, the market trading atmosphere is relatively deserted, and most merchants feedback that the transaction is weak as a whole. In terms of inventory, affected by the off-season factors of demand, domestic construction steel mills and market inventories have increased slightly this week, while the output of steel mills remains high, and the pressure on the supply side of construction steel is beginning to appear.

SMM believes that after the festival, due to the impact of rainy days on finished material shipments or affected, it is difficult to see a sustained substantial increase in the procurement end of steel mills, the daily average of port iron ore is open to port or a slight decline, and iron ore rises weakly. However, the data show that the operating rate of the blast furnace is still above 90%, and the mineral price will not fall deeply, so it still tends to shock in the short term.

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